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Ryanair trims FY26 passenger outlook amid Boeing delivery setbacks

By:

Pilotcenter.net

In a recent update, the popular low-cost carrier Ryanair has adjusted its passenger projections due to delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries. The airline now expects to fall short of its target of 210 million passengers by 2026. Ryanair officials disclosed, "While B737 production is bouncing back from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we anticipate a shortfall in aircraft deliveries before the summer of 2025, impacting our goal for 2026 traffic growth." This setback has prompted the airline to recalibrate its plans.

Pilotcenter.net News reports that Ryanair anticipates the arrival of the remaining 29 Boeing 737-8200 ‘Gamechanger’ aircraft by March 2026, which will help recover the delayed growth. Additionally, the certification of the MAX 10 by late 2025 is awaited, with Ryanair counting on the delivery of the first 15 MAX 10s by spring 2027.

To navigate this challenge, Ryanair is focusing its limited capacity expansion on regions and airports in Poland, Sweden, and Italy that are implementing incentives to spur traffic growth by cutting aviation taxes. Despite ongoing constraints in European short-haul capacity due to repairs on Pratt & Whitney engines for Airbus operators, Ryanair remains optimistic. The airline projects a steady, low-fare profitable growth trajectory, aiming to reach 300 million passengers over the next decade.

Although facing headwinds from Boeing delays, Ryanair reported a robust Profit After Tax (PAT) of €149 million for Q3 2024, compared to €15 million in the same quarter the previous year, with passenger numbers climbing by 9% to 45 million. The airline eyes nearly 200 million passengers in FY25 if there are no further disruptions in Boeing deliveries. Looking ahead, Ryanair is cautiously forecasting a PAT range of €1.55 billion to €1.61 billion for fiscal year 2025.

Amid uncertainties, Ryanair acknowledges that the final outcome for FY25 is contingent upon avoiding adverse external factors such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, continued Boeing delivery setbacks, and Air Traffic Control (ATC) challenges in Europe. The airline remains adaptable and resilient in the face of these challenges as it continues to navigate the evolving aviation landscape.

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